DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/jbk.v5i2.2016.146-156

Penerapan Metode Forecast Exponential Smoothing pada Jumlah Pasien Puskesmas

Dwi Aprilia

Abstract


Exponential smoothing was forecast method with reducing fl uctuations of forecast results used data from the past.
Increasing the number of patients had to was accompanied by facilities and tools supporting adequate services. The
research purposed to predict the number of patient the health center Mulyorejo. The results showed that number
of patient the health center Mulyorejo fl uctuating every month. Results of forecast in 2016 increasing total patients
there in April in the amount 3367 of patients. This also happened on general clinic with a number of patients
amount 2643 of pastient. Increasing patient on poli gigi and poli KIA were on October and November amount 322
and 529 patients. MAPE value was produced the forecast total patient was 8,742, general clinic was 6,069, teeth
poly was 12,579, and KIA poly was 23,139. Fluctuations in the number of patient visits the health center Mulyorejo
more infl uenced by the number of patient visits in general clinic. Suggestions are expected for policy makers should
be related planning tools, medicine, and health personnel needed in which the predicted number of visits will be
increased in each poli in Puskesmas Mulyorejo.

Keywords


exponensial smoothing, forecasting, patient, public health center

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