DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/jde.v2i1.5707

PROPERTY PRICE BUBBLE: REGIONAL ANALYSIS IN INDONESIA

Indra Kurniawan

Abstract


The aim of this study is to look at the influence of fundamental factors of demand and supply side of the property prices in five major Cities in Indonesia using data panel regression methods. In addition, this study analyzes the regional property and the price bubble in Indonesia using the Hodrick Prescott filter analysis. The results of the panel data regression method Showed that the demand-side fundamentals such as economic growth and inflation have a positive effect on property prices as well as interest rate, while  the loan to value(LTV) Negatively Affect the price of the property. On the other hand, the fundamental factors of supply-side variable, that is developer’s price expectations impact positively the price of the property. HP filter analysis identifying the bubble in every city that lasted for two periods during the study.


Full Text:

PDF

References


Claessens, Stijn, Swati R. Ghosh and Roxsns Mihet. 2013. Macro-prudentian polocies to mitigate the financial system vulnerabilities. Journal of International Money and Finance 39.

Real Sector Statistics Division. 2006-2014. Residential Property Price Survey 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2014. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia.

Dong, Ryan. 2013. An Empirical Analysis of Housing Price Bubble: A Case Study of Beijing Housing Market. Research in Applied Economics ISSN 1948-5433 Vol.5 No.1.

Gelain, Paolo and Kevin J. Lansing. 2014. House Price, Expectation, and time varying fundamentals. Journal of Empirical Finance 29 page 3-25.

Indra Kurniawan-041 211 132 011. 2016 Property Price Bubble: Regional Analysis in Indonesia. Surabaya: Thesis Program Development Economics Airlangga University.

Lambertini, Luisa, Caterina Mendicino, and Maria Teresa Punzi. 2013. Learning againts boom-bust cycles in credit and housing prices. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 37 page 1500-1522

Lind, Hans. 2008. Price Bubble in Housing Markets: conceps, Theory and Indicator. Building and Real Estate Economics Working Paper No. 58.

Michal, H and Lubos K. 2011. Regional Analysis of Housing Price Bubbles and Their Determinants in the Czech Republic. Czech National Bank and the Faculty of Social Science, Charles University, Prague. JEL Classification: C2, R21, R31.

Miles, David, and Pillonca, V. 2008. Financial Innovation and the European Housing and Mortgage Markets. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 24, pp. 145-175.

Santos, Manuel S. and M. Woodford, 1997. Rational Asset Bubbles. Econometrica, Vol. 65, No. 1, pp. 19-57.

Vladimir, Borgy, Lurent Clerc and Jean-Paul Renne. 2009. Asset-price boom-bust cycles and credit: what is the scope of macroprudential regulation ?. Banque de France, Working Paper#263.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


View My Stats Lisensi Creative Commons
Ciptaan disebarluaskan di bawah Lisensi Creative Commons Atribusi-NonKomersial 4.0 Internasional.