FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES MEMBERS OF THE ORGANIZATION OF ISLAMIC COOPERATION (OIC) IN THE PERIOD 1985-2016

The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of world oil prices, the dollar exchange rate, and inflation on economic growth in oil exporting countries at the organization of Islamic cooperation. The purposive sampling method used to Determine the 5 nation that fulfill the requirements needed. The Data used in this research is secondary Data Obtained from various international statistics institute. This study uses a quantitative approach and panel regression analysis of data that combines time series of data and crosssection data. The result of research with Fixed Effect estimation models shows that the impact of world oil prices, the dollar exchange rate, and inflation simultaneously have a significant effect on economic growth in oil exporting countries at the organization of Islamic cooperation. The other result shows that inflation partially does not have impact on economic growth in oil exporting countries at the organization of Islamic Cooperation, meanwhile other independent variables of the USD exchange rate and world oil prices partially have positive and significant effect on economic growth in oil exporting countries at the organization of Islamic cooperation during the period 1985-2016.


Introduction
Economic growth is one indicator that is very important in the analysis of the economic development that occurs in a country. Where economic growth shows the extent to which economic activity would generate additional income of the people in a given period. Economic activity is basically a process of the use of factors of production to produce output, then this process will in turn generate a stream of remuneration of the factors of production are owned by society. With the economic growth it is expected that public revenue as owners of production factors will also increase.
In the point of view of Islam, the economic growth is not only material but also runs a priority element of morality and spirituality because in Islam human is not just going through life alone but the human world will be resurrected in the Hereafter.
Such an attitude from the first well is already integrated in the life of a social, political or economic (Mannan, 1997).
Organization of Islamic Cooperation abbreviated as OIC is an international organization consisting of non-military Islamic countries and countries with a Muslim majority population. Currently the 57-nation OIC Islamic or Muslim majority in Asia and Africa, The main objective of the establishment of the OIC to enhance Islamic solidarity among member countries, coordinate cooperation between countries members, in support of peace and international security, and protecting the holy places of Islam and help fight the formation of an independent Palestinian state and sovereign.
In addition to the main goal, the Islamic suggestion for ta'awun or cooperate and mutual help among the people of the prophet Muhammad in his favor. for those who were able to rescue his brother from bad deeds and efforts as mutually reinforcing efforts, then surely this is a form of aid that must be done to fellow In the economy, the OIC member countries have a potential economic resources in different fields and sectors such as agriculture, energy, mining and human resources, and these countries is a strategic area for large trades Inflation is a rise in prices that occur continuously. According Rahardja (2008: 54) inflation is rising prices of goods that are general and ongoing. Based on these definitions, there are three components that must be met in order for a state can be said to have occurred inflation, ie price increases, general and ongoing inflation or rising prices cause a bad effect on trade. The rise in prices led to the country's goods can not compete in the international market with exports declining. In contrast, the prices of domestic production is higher as a result of inflation causes the imported goods become relatively cheaper then imports will be more done.
Inflation can also be considered as a monetary phenomenon due to the decrease in the exchange rate against a commodity monetary calculations.
Inflation can be measured with an inflation rate that is the rate of change of the general price level (Karim, 2007: 135). Very serious inflation may reach the level of a few hundred or thousand percent in a year (Sukirno, 2007: 15).
Economic growth and development is closely related to inflation, and inflation or price level is very sensitive to production activities. In the production process, energy is one of the fundamental input. Energy consumption to increase from year to year. The world of the total energy consumption has increased every year. Daily activities can not be separated from energy use. Oil is a vital energy source for the production process in a macro and micro scale, so that the economy will depend on world oil prices.
According to data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017, of total world energy consumption 38 percent fulfillment derived from oil. While the rest, filled with natural gas, coal and nuclear. Meanwhile in Islamic countries with oil export commodity that OPEC has the demand for energy is supported by crude oil to 285.5 million tonnes in 2011, rising at the rate of consumption of 328.9 million tons in 2016. This shows how great the need and dependence on crude.
Many of the factors that encourage consumption terms, terms of exchange rates, on the international market, the US dollar is used as the main exchange for oil trade transactions.It is like two sides of a coin, one side of the course to facilitate transactions that occur but on the other hand the use of the US dollar made a crack on the stability of oil prices. When the level of the US dollar has appreciated it will make the price of oil more expensive for importing countries and leading to a reduced demand for oil in the country, and the opposite is true in the exporting country when the level of the exchange rate of the dollar depreciates in the currency they require that they should keep the cost of production below the selling price.

Formulation of the problem
Based on the background described above, the formulation of the problem for this study are: In the Islamic view, economic growth is seen as an outline of a development and the development of human well-being. As quoted from Ahmad (1997) explained that economic growth is not merely material but also spiritual with the Since the start of the industrial revolution, fossil fuels began to be used on a large scale and is used to drive the economy.Until now, crude oil is still the biggest source of energy, although today many countries that dig deeper into the potential of renewable energy, dependence on crude oil can not be ignored.

Hypotheses and Model Analysis
Based on the background, the formulation of the problem and the theoretical basis that has been described, in this study can be formulated hypothesis:

Research approach
The approach used in this study is a quantitative approach with panel data regression analysis method. Panel data regression method is used to determine whether there is a significant influence of the independent variables of more than one dependent variable, this data is a combination of time series and cross section.

Pooled Least Square.(PLS)
This method simply combines all data time series and cross section. The panel data model approach Pooled Least Square (PLS) is as follows (Gujarati, 2004: 640):

Fixed Effect Model(FEM)
Definition of fixed effect method is a model with a different intercept for each subject, but each intercept or slope than any subject does not change over time.

Random Effect Model(BRAKE)
In the FEM using the addition of a dummy variable in the model can reduce the degree of freedom if we have several cross-section data which will reduce the efficiency of the parameters to be estimated. Random Effect Modela disturbance estimation technique uses the term to represent ignorance of the actual model, but uses a dummy variable. The panel data model with random effects approach is as follows (Gujarati, 2004: 647):

Selection of Panel Data Regression Model Estimation
Selection of the panel data estimation models using F (Chow test) and Hausman test.

interpretation Value
Interpretation of the value of the coefficient of determination or interpretation of an interpretation which is used to measure the effect of the independent variable on the dependent variable of a model in the study. Range determination coefficient ranges between zero and one (0 <<1). A value that indicates zero or close to zero, indicating that the lack of ability or the independent variables to explain the dependent variable or can be called very limited ability of the independent variable and shows the model used less precise. If the value indicates one or close to one, indicating that the independent variables was able to explain the dependent variable to provide the required information and means that the model used in the study is appropriate.R 2 R 2 R 2 R 2

Result and Discussion
Descriptive statistical analysis in this study aims to outline an overview of the variables used in this study, the gross domestic product, world oil prices, exchange rates and inflation usd.  table 2 Chow test Source: Eviews 10 SV, the data is processed.
Based on the results of testing the F-statistic above results obtained probability value (Prob.) On Cross-section F of 0.0000 which has a value below the significance level of five percent or 0.05 so that H0 rejected and H1 accepted.

PARTIAL TEST (TEST-t)
T-statistics test or partial test is used to see the effect of each independent variable on the dependent variable. Here is a hypothesis formed:

H0
: No independent variable partial effect on the dependent variable.

H1
: affect the dependent variable.
Simultaneous interpretation test by looking at the probability of t-statistics and the level of significance. , If the probability value is less than the significance level was set at 5 percent (0.05) H0 is rejected and H1 accepted. F-statistics test can be performed on the results of the regression estimation model. Based on Table 3 the results of the estimation model is getting f-statistics Probability of 0.0000 which is less than the predetermined significance which is 5 per cent (0.05). With this the H1 accepted it demonstrates that world oil prices, the USD exchange rate and inflation simultaneously influence on gross domestic product in the world's oil exporting country Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

Interpretation of the coefficient of determination R2
Interpretation of the coefficient of determination contained in any estimation models do. The coefficient of determination used to measure the ability of independent variables in explaining the dependent variable. The smaller the value of R2, the smaller is also the ability of independent variables in influencing and explaining the dependent variable. Based on Table 3

Inflation and GDP
Based on the results of the panel data regression inflation variable has no effect on the Gross Domestic Product. It is based on the value of the variable probability of 0652 that is greater than the significance level of 5 percent.
Based on these results concluded that the oil-exporting countries that are members of the OIC, inflation does not have a significant impact on the Gross Domestic Product of oil exporting countries of this.

Exchange Rate and the Gross Domestic Product
Based on the results of the panel data regression variable USD exchange rate have significant influence with a positive relationship to Gross domestic product, It is based on the value of the variable probability of 0.0000 which is smaller than the significance level of 5 percent. Positive correlation between gross domestic product and the USD exchange rate based on the positive value of variable coefficients 0123.
Based on these results concluded that the oil-exporting countries that are members of the OIC, the gross domestic product of oil-exporting countries is dependent on the intensity of the local exchange rates against the US dollar.

Conclusions and Suggestions
Based on the results of the analysis and research hypothesis testing as well as a discussion of the effect of oil prices, inflation and the exchange rate of the gross domestic product in oil-exporting countries organization of Islamic cooperation 1985-2016 period, it can be concluded as follows: 1. World oil prices have a significant effect partially and have a positive relationship to gross domestic product with a probability value of 0.000 and the coefficient 0.277285. This is consistent with the hypothesis that is predetermined and the study received H1 and reject H0.
2. Inflation does not affect the gross domestic product by 0652 and a probability value coefficient -0.000516. This is not consistent with the hypothesis that is predetermined and the study received H0 and reject H1.
3. Exchange Rate USD significant effect partially and have a positive relationship to gross domestic product with a probability value of 0.000 and the coefficient 0.123414. This is consistent with the hypothesis that is predetermined and the study received H1 and reject H0. This is consistent with the hypothesis that is predetermined and the study received H1 and reject H0.

Suggestion
Based on the steps that have been performed in this study, the suggestions to the authors give is: 1. For academics, it is expected for the next researcher to add other study variables that affect gross domestic product in oil-exporting countries such as government spending and monetary policies and fiscal 2. To policy makers Islamic Cooperation Organization to be able to control the large number of economies that rely on the sector as it will be susceptible to factors that could damage the economy. And be able to apply the rules strictly and in line with the vision and mission when OKI first established.
3. The OIC member countries are included in the oil-exporting countries are expected to implement policies regarding the problems of oil and gas commodities as a whole and not to give priority to political interests only.