EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH PADA HARGA IMPOR: STUDI KASUS INDONESIA, THAILAND, DAN SINGAPURA

This research paper is aimed to analyze the exchange rate pass-through in three South
East Asian Countries namely Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia. By employing time
series model with quarterly data in the period of 1990-2000, it is found that in the long
run in those three cases, the exchange rate pass-through toward import prices prevails.
It is shown that there is a positive relationship between the indexes of import price and
the relative value of local currency toward US Dollar as predicted by the theory. However,
in the short run, there is a difference in the context of response of indexes of import
price to movement in exchange rates. In the case of Indonesia and Thailand, the short
run estimates show the existence of incomplete pass-through, whereas in the case of
Singapore, the estimates figures show that there is no significant evidence of passthrough.
This finding might be due to the ability of domestic economy in finding
substitutes when there is a depreciation of domestic currency, vice versa. Moreover, the
demand pressure in local market and marginal cost, especially with concern to
transportation cost, faced by industry also could be other factors that influence the
existence of exchange rate pass-through.
Keywords: exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate, import price, inflation.