PROBABILITAS VARIABEL FUNDAMENTAL EKONOMI INDONESIA DAN TERHADAP TERJADINYA KRISIS FINANSIAL DI INDONESIA

Rossanto Dwi Handoyo

= http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/jeba.V22I12012.%25p
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Abstract


The objective of this paper is to implement financial crisis model as part of an early warning system framework
for Indonesia. This paper distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt
crises and extract four groups of indicators from the literature become economic fundamental indicators such
as external, financial, domestic (real and public) and global indicators, that are likely to affect the probability
of financial crises. The financial systems of developing countries like Indonesia are especially vulnerable and
therefore robust instruments to predict crises are needed. Our model is based on the signals approach
developed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998) and Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999). The model is also to
implement financial contagion channel to capture the effect of contagion due to financial crises occured the
regional economies

Keywords: currency crises, banking crises, debt crises, leading indicator, contagion effect, signal approach,
logit models


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Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Airlangga (JEBA) (p-ISSN: 2338-2686; e-ISSN: 2597-4564) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License