THE PREDICTION OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN PROPERTY COMPANIES IN SOUTHEAST ASIAN: INDONESIA, SINGAPORE, AND MALAYSIA
Downloads
Introduction: This study aims to assess and evaluate the financial distress state of a sample including 204 data points from 35 enterprises in Southeast Asia, specifically Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore.
Methods: This study analyzes the effects of Covid-19 on these enterprises, specifically concentrating on the likelihood of financial hardship as assessed by Edward Altman's Z-score model.
Results: Evidence indicates that property businesses listed on the Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore Stock Exchanges had greater financial difficulties during the Covid-19 period compared to the post-Covid period, aligning with observations at the ASEA Landmark level. The projected likelihood of default for publicly traded enterprises rose significantly during the Covid pandemic.
Conclusion and suggestion: The data reveal that the Z-score's efficacy in predicting bankruptcy markedly declined during the financial crisis. The data indicate that Covid-19 is causing financial pain to enterprises in Southeast Asia.
Ahemed, A. M., Iqbal, U., & Atif, M. M. (2025). Asymmetric cost behavior and financial distress. Economics Letters, 247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.112121
Al Ali, A. I., S, S. R., & Khedr, A. M. (2024). Enhancing financial distress prediction through integrated Chinese Whisper clustering and federated learning. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 10(3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joitmc.2024.100344
Alcalde, R., de Armiño, C. A., & García, S. (2022). Analysis of the Economic Sustainability of the Supply Chain Sector by Applying the Altman Z-Score Predictor. Sustainability (Switzerland), 14(2). https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020851
Allen, E., Doung, P., Iyengar, K., Khounthalyvong, P., Leuangkhamsing, S., Lynn, E. C., Magtibay-Ramos, N., Mangahas, J., Nguyen, D., Sandagdorj, B., Tian, S., Thomas, M., & Lin, M. (2024). Southeast Asia (Asian Development Outlook – September 2024).
Alves, C. F., & Meneses, L. L. (2024). ESG scores and debt costs: Exploring indebtedness, agency costs, and financial system impact. International Review of Financial Analysis, 94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103240
Andini, S. A., & Falianty, T. A. (2022). Property Price, Capital Inflows, and Financial System Stability in Asean-5 Economies: a Simultaneous Analysis. Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business, 37(1), 15–38. https://doi.org/10.22146/jieb.v37i1.1406
Andriani, F., & Sihombing, P. (2021). Comparative Analysis of Bankruption Prediction Models in Property and Real Estate Sector Companies Listed on the IDX 2017-2019. European Journal of Business and Management Research, 6(1), 170–173. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2021.6.1.730
ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). (2024). Vulnerabilities and Potential Spillovers Stemming from Property Developer Financing.
Astami, E., Pramono, A. J., Rusmin, R., Cahaya, F. R., & Soobaroyen, T. (2024). Do family ownership and supervisory board characteristics influence audit report lag? A view from a two-tier board context. Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intaccaudtax.2024.100638
Balyuk, T., & Fedyk, A. (2023). Divesting under Pressure: U.S. firms’ exit in response to Russia’s war against Ukraine. Journal of Comparative Economics, 51(4), 1253–1273. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.08.001
Bellucci, A., Pennacchio, L., & Zazzaro, A. (2023). Debt financing of SMEs: The certification role of R&D Subsidies. International Review of Financial Analysis, 90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102903
Chai, Y., Gan, Y., & Wang, Y. (2024). Logistic Model-based Prediction of Financial Distress of Listed Chinese Real Estate Companies. https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-268-2_17
Choi, S. Y., Ryu, D., & You, W. (2024). ESG activities and financial stability: The case of Korean financial firms. Borsa Istanbul Review, 24(5), 945–951. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2024.05.007
Chui, M., Illes, A., & Upper, C. (2018). Mortgages, developers and property prices. BIS Quarterly Review, Mar 2018(March), 97–111.
Desiyanti, O., Soedarmo, W., Chandra, K., & Kusnadi, K. (2019). The Effect Of Financial Ratios To Financial Distress Using Altman Z-Score Method In Real Estate Companies Listed In Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2014 - 2018. Business and Entrepreneurial Review, 19(2), 119–136. https://doi.org/10.25105/ber.v19i2.5699
Frank, K. (2024). Asia-Pacific Tomorrow.
Gaos, R.R., & Mudjiyanti, R. (2021). Pengaruh Corporate Governance Dan Firm Size Terhadap Financial Distress. Kompartemen: Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 19(1), 13–24. https://doi.org/10.30595/kompartemen.v19i1.11218
Han, H. D., Gupta, K., & Krishnamurti, C. (2024). Are labor laws and employee welfare complements in determining leverage ratios? Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2024.102545
Hanafi, A. H. A., Md-Rus, R., & Taufil Mohd, K. N. (2021a). Predicting Financial Distress In Malaysia And Its Effect On Stock Returns. International Journal of Banking and Finance, 16. https://doi.org/10.32890/ijbf2021.16.2.4
Hanafi, A. H. A., Md-Rus, R., & Taufil Mohd, K. N. (2021b). Predicting Financial Distress In Malaysia And Its Effect On Stock Returns. International Journal of Banking and Finance, 16. https://doi.org/10.32890/ijbf2021.16.2.4
Kristanti, F. T., & Pancawitri, S. (2024). Some Factors Affecting Financial Distress In Telecommunication Companies In Southeast Asia. Business: Theory and Practice, 25(1), 190–199. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2024.20018
Lian, Y. (2024). Financial distress, bank branching deregulation, and customer-supplier relationships. Journal of Corporate Finance, 88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102646
Manaf, S.M.A., Amzah, N.F.H., & Salleh. W.A. (2021). An Investigation of Factors Affecting Financial Distress: Analysis Among PN17 Companies in Bursa Malaysia. Insight Journal, 8. https://doi.org/10.24191/ij.v8i0.100
Mercadier, M., & Strobel, F. (2024). Bank insolvency risk, Z-score measures and unimodal returns: A refinement. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 101919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2024.101919
Modina, M., Pietrovito, F., Gallucci, C., & Formisano, V. (2023). Predicting SMEs’ default risk: Evidence from bank-firm relationship data. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 89, 254–268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2023.04.008
Ranta, M., & Ylinen, M. (2024). Employee benefits and company performance: Evidence from a high-dimensional machine learning model. Management Accounting Research, 64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mar.2023.100876
Rauf, A. (2023). Bank stability and the price of loan commitments. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2023.101027
Saraswati, R. A., Ratnawati, A., & Irawan, T. (2024). Determinants of Financial Distress in Property and Real Estate Companies Listed on The Indonesian Stock Exchange. Desember, 2(2), 80–92. https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.13.2.2024.80-92
Shi, Y., & Li, X. (2024). Bankruptcy prediction for the European aviation industry: An application of the Altman model. Managerial and Decision Economics, 45(1), 477–491. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.4018
Simbolon, R. (2022). Pengaruh Kualitas Audit Dan Kondisi Keuangan Perusahaan Terhadap Opini Audit Going Concern Pada Perusahaan Pertambangan Sub Sektor Batu Bara Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2018-2020. Jurnal Pembangunan Ekonomi dan Keuangan Daerah,23(1).
Wijaya, F. Desta, Lasmana, A., & Melani, M.M. (2024). The Effect of Liquidity, Profitability, Leverage and Activity on Financial Distress. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan, 12(4), 1377–1388. https://doi.org/10.37641/jimkes.v12i4.2550
Yi, W. (2012). Z-score Model on Financial Crisis Early-Warning of Listed Real Estate Companies in China: a Financial Engineering Perspective. Systems Engineering Procedia, 3, 153–157. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sepro.2011.11.021
Yuniarwati, Y., & Yusianto, Y. (2023). Development Of Property And Real Estate Companies: Z-Score Method Approach. International Journal of Application on Economics and Business (IJAEB), 1(2), 2987–1972. https://doi.org/10.24912/ijaeb.v1.i2.618-626
Zhao, S., Xu, K., Wang, Z., Liang, C., Lu, W., & Chen, B. (2022). Financial distress prediction by combining sentiment tone features. Economic Modelling, 106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105709
Copyright (c) 2025 Muhammad Abdul Ghoni, Asep Maksum, Abdul Qadir Jaelani, Noor’ain Mohamad Yunus

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Airlangga agree to the following terms:The journal allows the author to hold the copyright of the article without restrictions.
The journal allows the author(s) to retain publishing rights without restrictions
The legal formal aspect of journal publication accessibility refers to Creative Commons Attribution Share-Alike (CC BY-SA).
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Airlangga (JEBA) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License