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2025: IN PRESS ISSUE (JUST ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT, 2025)

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Oceanography

Marine Heatwaves in Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean Basin: Long-Term Trend and Climate Variability

Mukti Trenggono
Diponegoro University, Marine Science Department, Semarang, 50275 Indonesia
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6685-4557
Denny Nugroho Sugianto
Diponegoro University, Marine Science Department, Semarang, 50275 Indonesia
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1284-6471
Anindya Wirastriya
Diponegoro University, Marine Science Department, Semarang, 50275 Indonesia
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1030-5126
Muhammad Furqon Aziz Ismail
National Research and Innovation Agency, Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, Bandung, 40174, Indonesia
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5250-8039
Yingyi Yang
South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301, China
https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3395-8299
Dingqi Wang
First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao, 266061, China
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4203-3906

Corresponding Author(s) : Mukti Trenggono

mukti.trenggono@unsoed.ac.id

Jurnal Ilmiah Perikanan dan Kelautan, 2025: IN PRESS ISSUE (JUST ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT, 2025)

Abstract

Graphical Abstract



Highlight Research



  1. The basin has warmed consistently since the 1980s, with rising frequency, duration, and extent of events, most severe south of Java.

  2. Seasonal weakening of wind mixing during the Southeast Monsoon and transition months prolongs events, though daily intensity remains relatively stable.

  3. El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole phases trigger basin-wide thermal anomalies, underscoring large-scale climatic control over event occurrence and strength.

  4. Reduced latent heat loss, enhanced surface thermal radiation, and weaker winds limit ocean cooling, reinforcing persistent surface warming and prolonged heatwaves.


 


Abstract


Marine heatwaves in the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean occur when sea surface temperature remains above its historical average for several consecutive days or weeks, disrupting marine ecosystems, affecting primary productivity, and reducing fishery yields through habitat degradation and altered species distribution. Despite their growing frequency and impact, the spatial and temporal variability of these events in the region remains poorly understood. This study examined their distribution, intensity, and long-term evolution, along with their relationship to regional climate variability, using high-resolution sea surface temperature data. Detection was performed at each grid point following the method of Hobday and key metrics were calculated to describe event duration and intensity. Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis was applied to identify dominant spatial patterns and temporal modes of variability. Results showed that these marine heatwaves occur about three times annually, with more frequent and prolonged events south of Java than west of Sumatra. Most were moderate in duration and intensity, peaking at around 3.25 days per month during the monsoonal transition, while the strongest intensities appeared in the Southeast Monsoon. Over the past decade, cumulative annual intensity increased significantly, showing a positive trend of 18.88 ± 8.33 °C days per decade. The dominant spatial mode revealed intensified events south of Java, while a secondary mode indicated an increase after the early 2000s. These findings demonstrate a growing intensification of marine heatwaves in the Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean, driven by reduced ocean heat loss and enhanced surface net thermal radiation, highlighting their potential to exacerbate thermal stress on regional fisheries and marine ecosystems under ongoing climate change.


 

Keywords

Marine heatwaveSea surface temperatureEastern Tropical Indian OceanSurface heat fluxOcean-atmosphere interactionsMarine heatwave, Sea surface temperature, Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean Surface heat flux Ocean-atmosphere interactions
Mukti Trenggono, Sugianto, D. N. ., Wirastriya , A. ., Ismail , M. F. A. ., Yang , Y. ., & Wang , D. . (2025). Marine Heatwaves in Eastern Tropical Indian Ocean Basin: Long-Term Trend and Climate Variability. Jurnal Ilmiah Perikanan Dan Kelautan. Retrieved from https://e-journal.unair.ac.id/JIPK/article/view/79105
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Author Biographies

Mukti Trenggono, Diponegoro University, Marine Science Department, Semarang, 50275 Indonesia

Diponegoro University, Marine Science Department, Semarang, 50275 Indonesia

Jenderal Soedirman University, Marine Science Department, Purwokerto, 53122, Indonesia

Denny Nugroho Sugianto, Diponegoro University, Marine Science Department, Semarang, 50275 Indonesia

Diponegoro University, Marine Science Department, Semarang, 50275 Indonesia

Diponegoro University, SDGS Center, Semarang, 50275, Indonesia

Anindya Wirastriya , Diponegoro University, Marine Science Department, Semarang, 50275 Indonesia

Diponegoro University, Marine Science Department, Semarang, 50275 Indonesia

Muhammad Furqon Aziz Ismail , National Research and Innovation Agency, Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, Bandung, 40174, Indonesia

National Research and Innovation Agency, Research Center for Climate and Atmosphere, Bandung, 40174, Indonesia

Yingyi Yang , South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301, China

South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301, China

Dingqi Wang , First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao, 266061, China

First Institute of Oceanography, Qingdao, 266061, China

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