THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY IN INDONESIA, PERIOD 2004Q1-2018Q4
Downloads
Abstract
Fiscal sustainability illustrates the condition of a healthy government budget which can finance government spending without increasing debt supply. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on fiscal sustainability which in this study fiscal sustainability is proxied as a government budget deficit. The data used in this study is the 2004Q1-2018Q4 time series data using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results showed that fiscal conditions in Indonesia are sustainable and macroeconomic variables such as domestic debt andinflation has a positive effect on increasing the government budget deficit. Whereas the variable state revenues and foreign debt negatively affect the government budget deficit.
Keywords : Fiscal Sustainability, Government Budget Deficit, Domestic Debt, Foreign Debt.Adams, C., Ferrarini, B., & Park, D. 2010. "Fiscal sustainability in developing Asia". Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, 205.
Bank Indonesia. 2013. "Seri Kebijakan Moneter."Gerai Info Bank Indonesia, Issue 40 Year 4, page 7.
Burnside, C., & Dollar, D. 2000. "Aid, policies, and growth". American economic review, 90(4), 847–868.
Chenery, H. B., & Bruno, M. 1962. "Development alternatives in an open economy: The case of Israel". The Economic Journal, 72(285), 79–103.
Cuddington, J. T. 1999. "Analyzing the sustainability of fiscal deficits in developing countries". The World Bank.
Dewi, Ratna E.,& Artidiatun A. 2017. "Keberlanjutan Fiskal dan Fungsi Reaksi Fiskal di Indonesia, 1980-2015."Thesis. Yogyakarta: Economic Science, Gadjah Mada University.
Haerani, Wiwin. 2012. "Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Defisit APBN di Indonesia Periode Tahun 2001-2010."Thesis. Makasar: Faculty of Economics and Business, Hasanuddin University.
Harahap, I. 2016. "Analisis kausalitas variabel makro ekonomi terhadap Anggaran dan Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara di Indonesia periode 1990-2015". FEBI UINSU Press.
Hidayah, M. 2012. "Analisis Keberlanjutan Fiskal dan Utang Pemerintah Terhadap Keseimbangan Primer di Indonesia, 2000.1-2014.4: Pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM)."Jogjakarta: Gadjah Mada University.
Indonesia Funds Flow Balance 2018.
Kuncoro, H. 2011. "Ketangguhan APBN dalam pembayaran utang". Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 13(4), 433–454.
Kusumo, B. S. 2008. "Dampak Utang Luar Negeri Pemerintah Terhadap Kinerja Perekonomian Indonesia."Dissertation. Bogor: Bogor Agricultural Institute Graduate School.
Manurung, Mandala. 2009. "Analisis Keberadaan Utang Indonesia dan Dampak Defisit Anggaran terhadap Keberlanjutan Fiskal”. Journal of Economic Policy. Vol 2 No. 1. Pages 25-58.
Marisa, R. 2015. "Analisis keberlanjutan fiskal Indonesia tahun 2000-2012". Bina Ekonomi, 19(1), 1–14.
Raymundo, R. B. 2016. "Fiscal Sustainability and Sovereignty Issues under an Asean Economic Union". DSLU Research Congress, De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines, March, 7–9.
Stoian, A., & Campeanu, E. 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Run in Central and Eastern European Countries". Finance a Uver: Czech Journal of Economics & Finance, 60(6).
The Ministry of Industry of the Republic of Indonesia. 2011. "Laporan Evaluasi Kinerja Ekonomi Tahun 2010."
Wardhono, A., Qori'ah, C. G., & Wulandari, C. D. A. 2015. "Studi kesinambungan fiskal pada variabel makro ekonomi Indonesia: Analisis VAR". Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 8(2), 113–121.
Widarjono, A. 2013. "Ekonometrika". UPP STIM YKPN. Yogyakarta.
Authors who publish with Airlangga International Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant AIJIEF the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to remix, adapt and build upon the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and of the initial publication in AIJIEF.
- Authors are permitted to copy and redistribute the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in AIJIEF.
