The Forecasting of Financial Inclusion in East Java Through Islamic Microfinance Institution: an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach
Downloads
Financial inclusion is an effort intended to eliminate price and non-price barriers toward public access to formal financial institutions. The aim of that is income equalization of the societies affecting increasing economic growth, poverty alleviation, and financial system stability. East Java is one of the provinces in Indonesia with the most number of Islamic Rural Banks (BPRS). This study wants to find out how the role of BPRS in realizing the acceleration of Islamic financial inclusion in East Java. Then, this research is conducted in the period January 2014 – May 2018 in which data sourced from the Islamic Banking Statistics (SPS), Financial Services Authority (FSA). An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is applied as research method to predict the level of Islamic financial inclusion in East Java through BPRS by using three from four financial inclusion indicators released by Bank Indonesia in 2014 namely access with number of BPRS as its proxy, usage with amount of third party funds and amount of financing as its proxies, and quality with total assets and Non-Performing Financing (NPF) as its proxies. The results show that based on forecasting values until December 2020, the number of BPRS predicted will decrease with the last number as many as 27 banks, DPK will increase with the last number 1,680,558.79 million Rupiah, the amount of financing will increase with the last number as many as 1,822,810.80 million Rupiah, asset will increase with the last number 2,299,250.44 million Rupiah, and NPF will increase with the last number 12.48 percent.
Keywords: Financial Inclusion, Islamic Rural Banks, ARIMA, East Java
JEL Classification: N25, G21
Alliance for Financial Inclusion (AFI). 2015. The 2015 AFI Global Policy Forum Report. AFI Publication 2015
Ali, A. E. E. S. 2015. Islamic Microfinance: Moving Beyond Financial Inclusion. European Scientific Journal, 11(10), April 2015, p. 297-310
Bank Indonesia. 2014. Booklet Financial Inclusion. Financial Acces and SME Development Bank Indonesia
Dienillah, A. A. and Anggraeni, L. 2016. Dampak Inklusi Keuangan terhadap Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan Di Asia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 18(4), April 2016, p. 410-430
Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion (GPFI). 2011. G-20 Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion Work Plan 2011-2012. Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion (GPFI)
Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion (GPFI). 2014. Determining Appropriate Service Charges Based on Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) Operational Cost Data: A Case of Bangladesh. GPFI and AFI January 2014
Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion (GPFI). 2017. G20 Financial Inclusion Action Plan Financial Inclusion Experts Group. Source: http://www.gpfi.org, Accesed on October 10th, 2018
Gujarati, D. N. 2013. Dasar-dasar Ekonometrika, Edisi Kelima, Mangunsong, R. C, penerjemah, Jakarta: Salemba Empat
Husaeni, Uus Ahmad. 2017. Determinan Pembiayaan Pada Bank Pembiayaan Rakyat Syariah di Indonesia. Jurnal Bisnis dan Manajemen, 7, 2017, p. 49-62
Khandker, S et al. 1994. Is Grameen Bank Sustainable? Human Resources Development and Operations Policy Working Paper No. 23
Kim, Dai-Won et al. 2017. Financial inclusion and economic growth in OIC countries. Research in International Business and Finance, 43, 2018, p. 1-14
Mainsah, E et al. 2004. Grameen Bank: Taking Capitalism to the Poor. Chazen Web Journal of International Business Spring 2004, source: www.gsb.columbia.edu/chazenjournal, Accesed on October 12th, 2018
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, C. 2017. Role of Microfinance in Financial Inclusion in Bihar-A Case Study. IOSR Journal of Business and Management (IOSR-JBM), 19(9), September 2017, p. 39-48
Mohieldin, M et al. 2012. The Role of Islamic Finance in Enhancing Financial Inclusion in Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Countries. Islamic Economic Studies, 20(2), December 2012, p. 55-120
Mwaitete, C. P. And George, L. A. 2018. Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth A Regression Analysis. Imperial Journal of Interdisciplinary Research (IJIR) Peer Reviewed – International Journal, 4(1), 2018, p. 265-288
Nabi, M. G. et al. 2017. Islamic Microfinance As a Tool of Financial Inclusion in Bangladesh. Source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318361012, Accesed on October 12th, 2018
Noreen, A et al. 2017. Model Building and Forecasting of Bank Credit to Public and Private Sector. Universal Journal of Accounting and Finance 5(4), 2017, p. 73-77
Nwanne, T. F. I. 2015. Relationship Between Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth in Nigerian Rural Dwellers. International Journal of Small Business and Entrepreneurship Research, 3(7), December 2015, p. 17-27
Onaolapo, A. R. 2015. Effects of Financial Inclusion on the Economic Growth of Nigeria (1982-2012). International Journal of Business and Management Review, 3(8), September 2015, p. 11-28
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. 2018. Statistik Perbankan Syariah Januari 2014 – Mei 2018. Otoritas Jasa Keuangan
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. 2016. Master Plan Sektor Jasa Keuangan Indonesia 2015 – 2019 (Memacu Pertumbuhan dan Menjawab Tantangan Sektor Jasa Keuangan, Kini dan Nanti). Jakarta: Otoritas Jasa Keuangan
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. 2016. Survei Nasional Literasi dan Inklusi Keuangan 2016. Departemen Literasi dan Inklusi Keuangan Bidang Edukasi dan Perlindungan Konsumen, Otoritas Jasa Keuangan
Pasuhuk, P. M. 2018. Contribution of Financial Depth and Financial Access to Poverty Reduction in Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 21(1), July 2018, p. 96-122
Sharma, Rajesh et al. 2011. Need of Financial Inclusion for Poverty Alleviation and GDP Growth. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research 1(6), October 2011, p. 83-91
Susilo, Edi. 2015. Mengentaskan Kemiskinan dan Kebodohan Ummat melalui Inklusi Keuangan Syariah (Sharia Financial Inclusion). Proceeding Seminar Nasional dan Call for Paper "Membangun Indonesia Berbasis Nilai-nilai Agama” diselenggarakan oleh ADPISI (Asosiasi Dosen Pendidikan Islam Indonesia) di UNAIR, Surabaya 19-20 November 2015
Umar, A. I. 2017. Index of Syariah Financial Inclusion in Indonesia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan, 20(1), Juli 2017, p. 100-126
Widarjono, Agus. Ekonometrika Pengantar dan Aplikasi, Yogyakarta: Ekonosia, 2013
Williams, H. T. 2017. Role of Financial Inclusion in Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in A Developing Economy. Internal Journal of Research in Economics and Social Sciences (IJRESS), 7(5), May 2017, p. 265-271
Winarno, W. W. 2015. Analisis Ekonometrika dan Statistika dengan EViews, Edisi Keempat, Cetakan Pertama, UPP STIM YKPN, Yogyakarta
World Bank. 2014. Global Financial Development Report 2014. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development World Bank
Yakubu, I et al. 2017. Determining and Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Northern Ghana Using Discriminant Analysis. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 163, September 2017, p. 61-72
Yunus, M. 2004. Grameen Bank, Microcredit and Millennium Development Goals. Economic and Political Weekly, 39(36), September 2004, p. 4077-4080
Copyright (c) 2018 Muhammad Anif Afandi, Indanazulfa Qurrota A'yun
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) (p-ISSN: 2541-1012; e-ISSN: 2528-2018) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
- The journal allows the author to hold the copyright of the article without restrictions.
- The journal allows the author(s) to retain publishing rights without restrictions
- The legal formal aspect of journal publication accessibility refers to Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY)
