Adya Utami Syukri


Abstract views = 955 times | downloads = 1020 times


This research aims to determine the relationship between gross domestic product, exports, imports, foreign exchange reserves, and foreign debt in Indonesia from 1978 – 2018. As a developed country, Indonesia must know the interrelatedness between the GDP and the variable in the international balance of payment to move the economy well. This research using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method that includes ADF Test, Granger Causality, Johanssen Co-integration, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and forecasting with Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Variance Decomposition (VD). From the Granger causality test results that have been carried out among the five variables, it is concluded that there is no causality relationship, but there are six one-way relationships. Simultaneously, the cointegration test from the Johanssen Co-Integration test results in the five variables tested. Forecasting for the next ten years through the IRF and VD tests shows that GDP positively responds to foreign debt and exports. Exports provide a positive response to GDP and imports. Imports give a positive response to exports, GDP, and foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, foreign debt gives a positive reaction to GDP and imports. Then foreign exchange reserves provide a positive response to exports and foreign debt. The government needs to allocate funds from foreign debt to the export sectors to increase GDP.


Keywords: Causality, VECM, Gross Domestic Product, Exports, Foreign Debt Java Industry

JEL Classification: F14,  F41, C01

Full Text:



Ahwireng-Obeng, A. S., & Ahwireng-Obeng, F. (2019). Macroeconomic determinants of sovereign bond market development in African emerging economies. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 15(4), 651–669.

Al-Shayeb, A., & Hatemi-J, A. (2016). Trade openness and economic development in the UAE: an asymmetric approach. Journal of Economic Studies, 43(4), 587–597.

Al Kharusi, S., & Ada, M. S. (2018). External debt and economic growth: The case of emerging economy. Journal of Economic Integration, 33(1), 1141–1157.

Aryani, Y. F., & Subiyantoro, H. (2006). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Rendahnya Daya Serap Pinjaman Luar Negeri-IBRD. Jurnal Keuangan Publik, 4(2), 39–60.

Bakari, S. (2018). Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Canada: Empirical Analysis Based on Causality. International Academic Journal of Innovative Research, 5(1), 17–29.

Basri, Y. Z., & Subri, M. (2003). Keuangan Negara dan Analisis Kebijakan Utang Luar Negeri. Jakarta: PT Raja Grafindo Persada.

Batubara, D. M. H., & Saskara, I. N. (2015). Analisis Hubungan Ekspor, Impor, PDB dan Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia Periode 1970-2013. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 8(1).

Benny, J. (2013). EKSPOR DAN IMPOR PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP POSISI CADANGAN DEVISA DI INDONESIA. Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 1(4).

Boediono. (1994). Pengantar Ekonomi Internasional. Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Buiter, W. H., & Grafe, C. (2003). Reforming EMU’s fiscal policy rules; some suggestions for enhancing fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability in an enlarged European Union. University Press.

Callen, T. (2020). Gross Domestic Product : An Economy’s All. IMF Development and Finance, 3–5.

Carbaugh, R. J. (2004). International Economics. Australia: Thomson South-Western.

Chowdhury, Y., & Islam, Shariful, M. (2018). Causal Relationship among External Debt, Foreign Exchange Reserves and Economic Growth in Bangladesh. Retrieved from

Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2006). BASIC ECONOMETRIC 5th Edition. Introductory Econometrics: A Practical Approach. The Mc Graw-Hill Series Economy.

Hady, H. (2001). Ekonomi Internasional: teori dan kebijakan perdagangan internasional. Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia.

IMF, & The World Bank. (2003). Guidelines for Public Debt Management. Retrieved from

Kartikasari, D. (2017). International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues The Effect of Export, Import and Investment to Economic Growth of Riau Islands Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues.

Lindert, P.H. and Kindleberger, C.P., (1994). Ekonomi Internasional Edisi ke-9.

Mankiw, N. G. (2000). Principles of Microeconomics, 2nd edition. USA. Harcourt College Pub.

Mohamed Mahmoud, L. O. (2015). The Role of External Debt on Economic Growth: Evidence from Mauritania. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 4(4).

Nehen, K. (2012). Perekonomian Indonesia. Denpasar: Udayana University Press.

Nopirin. (2009). Ekonomi Internasional (3rd ed.). Yogyakarta: BPFE.

Putra, I. B. P. P., & Indrajaya, I. G. B. (2013). Pengaruh Tingkat Inflasi, Utang Luar Negeri, Dan Suku Bunga Kredit Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia Tahun 1996-2011. E-Jurnal EP Universitas Udayana, 2(11), 533–538.

Rachmadi, & Lukman, A. (2013). Analisis Pengaruh Utang Luar Negeri Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia (Studi Kasus Tahun 2001-2011). Analisis Pengaruh Utang Luar Negeri Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia.

Rizvi, S. K. A., Naqvi, B., Ramzan, M., & Rizavi, S. S. (2011). Pakistan’s Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reservesduring 2001-2006: Benign or Hostile! Excessive or Moderate! Intent or Fluke! Pakistan Journal of Commerce & Social Sciences, 5(1), 47–67.

Shkolnyk, I., & Koilo, V. (2018). The relationship between external debt and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Ukraine and other emerging economies. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(1), 387–400.

Tambunan, T. T. H., & Sikumbang, R. (2011). Perekonomian Indonesia: kajian teoretis dan analisis empiris. Jakarta: Ghalia Indonesia.

Todaro, M. P. (1998). Pembangunan Ekonomi di Dunia Ketiga Jilid 2 (6th ed.). Jakarta: Erlangga.

Uğur, A. (2008). Import and economic growth in Turkey: Evidence from multivariate VAR analysis. Journal of Economics and Business, 11(1–2), 54–75.

Ulfa, S., & T.zulham. (2017). Analisis Utang Luar Negeri dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Kajian Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhinya. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa, 2(1), 144–152.


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Copyright (c) 2020 Adya Utami Syukri

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

This journal is indexed by:


View My Stats


This Journal is Published by:

Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Airlangga

Address : Jalan Airlangga 4 Surabaya 60286, Jawa Timur, Indonesia

E-mail :

Lisensi Creative Commons
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) (p-ISSN: 2541-1012; e-ISSN: 2528-2018) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License