The Impact of Climate Change on Food Insecurity in The Southern African Development Community

Elisha Mavodyo

doi:10.20473/jde.v8i1.43534

Authors

Elisha Mavodyo
mavodyoe@gmail.com
University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4133-5782

Vol. 8 No. 1 (2023)

Articles

June 15, 2023

Downloads

pdf

Abstract
How to Cite
Metrics
References
License

Despite the fact that the Southern African region is one of the most vulnerable to climate change, research on the impact of climate change on food insecurity in the SADC region as a whole is scarce. We make two major contributions to the literature. First, we examine how climate change affects a group of SADC countries. Second, in contrast to previous studies, we supplement an analysis of climate change on crop yield with an analysis of climate change on other food insecurity indicators such as food affordability, malnutrition, and a food insecurity measure. Relying on the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, results show that precipitation has a statistically significant impact on all four indicators of food insecurity in both its linear and non-linear forms; precipitation has the greatest impact on food affordability, followed by its negative impact on malnutrition; and temperature -whether in its linear or nonlinear form- has no statistically significant influence on all four indicators of food insecurity. However, temperature change gains statistical significance in explaining movements in food security after controlling for the interaction of temperature and precipitation. The policy implications of these findings highlight the need to increase precipitation availability in the SADC region by designing sustainable irrigation programs while also implementing climate change mitigation initiatives alongside those designed to ensure food affordability and access to a healthy and decent meal, particularly for the poor.

ACCORD .(2022). Conflict and resilience monitor, environment, advancing the climate security agenda in the SADC region, DECEMBER 22, 2022 (https://www.accord.org.za/analysis/advancing-the-climate-security-agenda-in-the-sadc-region/)

Adaawen, S., Rademacher-Schulz, C., Schraven, B., & Segadlo, N. (2019). Drought, migration, and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: What are the links and policy options? Current Directions in Water Scarcity Research, 2, 15-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-814820-4.00002-X

Affoh, R., Zheng, H., Dangui, K., & Dissani, B. M. (2022). The impact of climate variability and change on food security in sub-saharan africa: Perspective from panel data analysis. Sustainability, 14(2), 759. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020759

Akombi, B. J., Agho, K. E., Merom, D., Renzaho, A. M., & Hall, J. J. (2017). Child malnutrition in sub-Saharan Africa: A meta-analysis of demographic and health surveys (2006-2016). PloS one, 12(5), e0177338. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0177338

Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of econometrics, 68(1), 29-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01642-D

Awad, A. (2023). The determinants of food insecurity among developing countries: Are there any differences? Scientific African, 19, e01512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2022.e01512

Baker, R. E., & Anttila-Hughes, J. (2020). Characterizing the contribution of high temperatures to child undernourishment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-74942-9

Berck, C. S., Berck, P., & Di Falco, S. (2018). Agricultural adaptation to climate change in Africa. Taylor & Francis.

Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8

Davis, C. L., & Vincent, K. (2017). Climate risk and vulnerability: A handbook for Southern Africa.

Deschíªnes, O., & Greenstone, M. (2007). The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather. American Economic Review, 97(1), 354-385. DOI: 10.1257/aer.97.1.354

Devereux, S., & Edwards, J. (2004). Climate change and food security. IDS Bulletin 35(3): 22-3010.1111/j.1759-5436.2004.tb00130.x

Dietz, W. H. (2020). Climate change and malnutrition: we need to act now. The Journal of Clinical Investigation, 130(2), 556-558. https://doi.org/10.1172/JCI135004.

Easterling, W. E., Aggarwal, P. K., Batima, P., Brander, K. M., Erda, L., Howden, S. M., & Tubiello, F. N. (2007). Food, fiber and forest products: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Interdepartmental Working Group (IDWG) on Climate Change, & Killmann, W. (2008). Climate change and food security: a framework document. Rome: FAO.

Gitz, V., Meybeck, A., Lipper, L., Young, C. D., & Braatz, S. (2016). Climate change and food security: risks and responses. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Report, 110, 2-4.

Gebreegziabher, Z., Mekonnen, A., Bekele, R. D., Bane, J., & Zewdie, S. A. (2018). Mapping vulnerability to climate change of the farming sector in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia: a micro-level perspective. In C.Spindell Berck, P., & S.Di Falco (eds.), Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa (pp. 28-54). Routledge.

Gbashi, S., Adebo, O., Adebiyi, J.A., Targuma, S., Tebele, S., Areo, O.M., Olopade, B., Odukoya, J.O. and Njobeh, P., (2021). Food safety, food security and genetically modified organisms in Africa: a current perspective. Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering Reviews, 37(1), 30-63. https://doi.org/10.1080/02648725.2021.1940735

Gregory, P. J., Ingram, J. S., & Brklacich, M. (2005). Climate change and food security. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 360(1463), 2139-2148. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1745

Hsiao, C., & Pesaran, M. H. (2008). Random Coefficient Models. In The Econometrics of Panel Data (Vol. 46, 185–213). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75892-1_6/COVER

Herbel, D., Crowley, E., Ourabah Haddad, N., & Lee, M. (2012). Good practices in building innovative rural institutions to increase food security. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

Jiren, T. S., Riechers, M., Bergsten, A., & Fischer, J. (2021). A leverage points perspective on institutions for food security in a smallholder-dominated landscape in southwestern Ethiopia. Sustainability Science, 16, 767-779. DOI:10.1007/s11625-021-00936-9

Kabubo-Mariara, J., & Kabara, M. (2018). Climate change and food security in Kenya. In C.Spindell Berck, P., & S.Di Falco (eds.), Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa (pp. 55-80). Routledge.

Kajombo, R., Bogale, A. and Thamaga-Chitja, J., (2014). Evidence for supporting vulnerable households to achieve food security in SADC countries. Journal of Human Ecology, 47(1), pp.73-85. https://doi.org/10.1080/09709274.2014.11906740

Kurukulasuriya, P., & Mendelsohn, R. O. (2008). How will climate change shift agro-ecological zones and impact African agriculture? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (4717). http://hdl.handle.net/10986/6994

Kurukulasuriya, P., & Rosenthal, S. (2013). Climate change and agriculture: A review of impacts and adaptations. The World Bank Environment Department.

Lobell, D. B., & Field, C. B. (2007). Global scale climate–crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming. Environmental Research Letters, 2(1), 014002. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/2/1/014002

Mamoko, J. R. Z., Agohob, S. A. R., & Saturinas, A. T. (2022). Ending poverty: strengthening urban container gardening. JIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan), 7(2), 220–227. https://doi.org/10.20473/jiet.v7i2.32638

Masipa, T. (2017). The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead. Jí mbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 9(1), 1-7. https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC-a876c549f

Massetti, E., & Mendelsohn, R. (2011). Estimating Ricardian models with panel data. Climate Change Economics, 2(04), 301-319. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2010007811000322

McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., & White, K. S. (Eds.). (2001). Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Vol. 2). Cambridge University Press.

Mendelsohn, R. O., & Dinar, A. (2009). Climate change and agriculture: an economic analysis of global impacts, adaptation and distributional effects. Edward Elgar Publishing.

Militao, E. M., Salvador, E. M., Silva, J. P., Uthman, O. A., Vinberg, S., & Macassa, G. (2022). Coping strategies for household food insecurity, and perceived health in an urban community in southern Mozambique: A qualitative study. Sustainability, 14(14), 8710. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14148710

Mobjörk, M., Krampe, F., & Tarif, K. (2020). SIPRI Policy Brief-Pathways of Climate Insecurity: Guidance for Policymakers.

Mundlak, Y. (1978). On the pooling of time series and cross section data. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 69-85. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913646

Muringai, R. T., Naidoo, D., Mafongoya, P., & Lottering, S. (2020). The impacts of climate change on the livelihood and food security of small-scale fishers in Lake Kariba, Zimbabwe. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 55(2), 298-313. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909619875769

Murshed, S. M., Badiuzzaman, M., & Hasan, R. (2018). Food insecurity and conflict events in Africa. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 24(2).

Muzhinji, N. and Ntuli, V. (2021). Genetically modified organisms and food security in Southern Africa: conundrum and discourse. GM Crops & Food, 12(1), 25-35. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2018-0007

Ofori, S. A., Cobbina, S. J., & Obiri, S. (2021). Climate change, land, water, and food security: Perspectives From Sub-Saharan Africa. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 5, 680924. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2021.680924

Pemunta, N. V., Ngo, N. V., Fani Djomo, C. R., Mutola, S., Seember, J. A., Mbong, G. A., & Forkim, E. A. (2021). The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Egyptian National Security, and human and food security in the Nile River Basin. Cogent Social Sciences, 7(1), 1875598. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2021.1875598

Richardson, K. J., Lewis, K. H., Krishnamurthy, P. K., Kent, C., Wiltshire, A. J., & Hanlon, H. M. (2018). Food security outcomes under a changing climate: impacts of mitigation and adaptation on vulnerability to food insecurity. Climatic Change, 147, 327-341.

Ringler, C., Zhu, T., Cai, X., Koo, J., & Wang, D. (2010). Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios (No. 1042). International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Rossignoli, D., & Balestri, S. (2018). Food security and democracy: do inclusive institutions matter? Canadian Journal of Development Studies/Revue canadienne d'études du développement, 39(2), 215-233. https://doi.org/10.1080/02255189.2017.1382335

SADC. (2022). Synthesis report on the state of food and nutrition security and vulnerability in southern Africa 2022. Southern African Development Community Regional Vulnerability Assessment and Analysis Programme.

Schlenker, W., Michael Hanemann, W., & Fisher, A. C. (2005). Will US agriculture really benefit from global warming? Accounting for irrigation in the hedonic approach. American Economic Review, 95(1), 395-406. DOI: 10.1257/0002828053828455

Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., ... & Reinhardt, J. (2017). Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions. Regional Environmental Change, 17, 1585-1600. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0910-2

Subramaniam, Y., Masron, T. A., & Subramanian, T. (2020). Institutional quality and food security. The Singapore Economic Review, 1-29. DOI:10.1142/S0217590820500046

Teklewold, H., Mekonnen, A., & Kohlin, G. (2019). Climate change adaptation: a study of multiple climate-smart practices in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Climate and Development, 11(2), 180-192. https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2018.1442801

Verschuur, J., Li, S., Wolski, P., & Otto, F. E. (2021). Climate change as a driver of food insecurity in the 2007 Lesotho-South Africa drought. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 3852. DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-83375-x

Waema, T. M., & Njue, M. (2020). Africa climate change leadership program: final technical report.

World Food Programme. (2022). Global Report on Food Crises 2022. In May. https://www.wfp.org/publications/global-report-food-crises-2022

Zakari, S., Ibro, G., Moussa, B., & Abdoulaye, T. (2022). Adaptation strategies to climate change and impacts on household income and food security: Evidence from Sahelian region of Niger. Sustainability, 14(5), 2847. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052847

Zewdie, A. (2014). Impacts of climate change on food security: a literature review in Sub Saharan Africa. Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change, 5(8). DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000225

Ziervogel, G., Lennard, C., Midgley, G., New, M., Simpson, N. P., Trisos, C. H., & Zvobgo, L. (2022). Climate change in South Africa: Risks and opportunities for climate-resilient development in the IPCC Sixth Assessment WGII Report. South African Journal of Science, 118(9-10), 1-5. http://dx.doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2022/14492