Poverty and Inequality Dynamics: Measuring Dampening and IGTI in Three CAFTA-DR Countries
Downloads
This article examines the relationships between extreme poverty, economic growth, and inequality, assesses if changes in inequality dampen the impact of income on extreme poverty, and determines the magnitude of the inequality growth trade-off index in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Honduras. A country-specific ARDL bound regression was conducted. The findings indicate the presence of direct and indirect dampening impacts of changes in inequality on income growth and extreme poverty reduction. The magnitude of the inequality growth trade-off- index indicates whether to prioritize growth and/or inequality reducing policies. This means that the higher the inequality, as in Honduras, the higher the economic or average income growth rate required to compensate for the increase in inequality to achieve a given level of extreme poverty reduction. Accordingly, there is no one-size-fits-all policy approach to tackling extreme poverty.
Adams, R. H. (2004). Economic growth, inequality and poverty: estimating the growth elasticity of poverty. World development, 32(12), 1989-2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.08.006
Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE transactions on automatic control, 19(6), 716-723. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1974.1100705
Ali, W., Abdullah, A., & Azam, M. (2017). Re-visiting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Malaysia: Fresh evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 77, 990-1000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.11.236
Attanasio, O., & Binelli, C. (2004). Inequality, growth and redistributive policies. Proceeding of the AFD-EUDN Conference 2003, 179–213.
BCCR. (2021). Memoria annual 2020. San Jose: Banco Central de Costa Rica
BCCR. (2012). Costa Rica: Economic Indicators, 1951-2010. Central Bank of Costa Rica.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. M., & Goswami, G. G. (2003). A disaggregated approach to test the J-curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 102-113. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02751593
Baltagi, B.H. (2013), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (5th ed.). New York: John Wiley.
Bayer, C., & Hanck, C. (2013). Combining non"cointegration tests. Journal of Time series analysis, 34(1), 83-95. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2012.00814.x
Boushhey, H., Bradford, D. L., & Steinbaum, M. (2017). After Piketty: The Agenda for Economics and Inequality. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, 37(2), 149-163.
Breusch, T. S. (1978). Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Australian economic papers, 17(31), 334-355, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x
Cingano, F. (2014). Trends in income inequality and its impact on economic growth. OECD SEM Working paper No. 163, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Cornia, G. A., & Court, J. (2001). Inequality, growth and poverty in the era of liberalization and globalization”A Policy Brief. Helsinki: UNU World Institute for Development Economics Research.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
ECLAC. (2021). Social Panorama of Latin America, 2021. Economic Commission for Latin Santiago: America and the Caribbean.
Elliot, G., Rothenberg, T. J., & Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64, 813-836. https://doi.org/10.2307/2171846
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50, 987-1007. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912773
Fosu, A. K. (2010). Inequality, Income, and Poverty: Comparative Global Evidence. Social Science Quarterly, 91(5), 1432–1446. http://www.jstor.org/stable/42956468
Fuentes & Ricardo. (2005). Poverty, Pro-Poor Growth and Simulated Inequality Reduction. Human Development Occasional Papers 2005-11, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
Gasparini, L., Gutiérrez, F., & Tornarolli, L. (2007). Growth and income poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean: evidence from household surveys. Review of Income and Wealth, 53(2), 209-245. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.2007.00231.x
Gindling, T. H., & Terrell, K. (2010). Minimum wages, globalization, and poverty in Honduras. World Development, 38(6), 908-918. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.02.013
Gindling, T. H., & Trejos, J. D. (2013). The distribution of income in Central America. In Handbook of Central American Governance (pp. 75-94). Routledge.
Gini, C. (1912). Variabilitá e mutabilitá: contributo allo studio delle distribuzioni e delle relazioni statistiche [Variability and mutability: contribution to the study of distributions and statistical relationships]. Bologna: Tipografia di Paolo Cuppini.
Godfrey, L. G. (1978). Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables. Econometrica, 46(6), 1303–1310. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913830
Government of the Republic of Honduras. (2000). Interim poverty reduction strategy paper. Tegucigalpa: Government of Honduras.
Halicioglu, F. (2007). Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey. Energy economics, 29(2), 199-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.11.007
Harris, R., & Sollis, R. (2003). Applied time series modelling and forecasting. West Sussex: Wiley.
IMF. (2021a). Costa Rica: 2021 Article IV Consultation and request for an extended arrangement under the extended IMF Fund Facility. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
IMF. (2021b). Guatemala: 2021 Article IV Consultation. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
INEC (2008). Encuesta Nacional de Hogares: resultados generals [National Household Survey: general results]. San José: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos.
INEC. (2009). Encuesta Nacional de Hogares: resultados generals [National Household Survey: general results]. San José: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos.
INEC (2012). Encuesta Nacional de Hogares: resultados generals [National Household Survey: general results]. San José: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos.
INEC. (2013). Estimaciones y proyecciones de población por sexo y edad, 1950-2050 [Population estimates and projections by sex and age, 1950-2050]. San Jose: Instituto de Estadistica y censo de Costa Rica, San Jose.
INEC. (2018). Encuesta Permanente de Hogares de Propósitos Múltiples, LXI 2018 [Permanent Multipurpose Household Survey, LXI 2018]. Tegucigalpa: Instituto Nacional de Estadística.
INEC. (2020). Nivel de pobreza por LP según características de los hogares y las personas, Julio 2019 y Julio 2020 [Level of poverty by LP according to household and individual characteristics, July 2019 and July 2020]. San Jose: Instituto de Estadistica y censo de Costa Rica.
Iradian, G. (2005). Inequality, poverty, and growth: Cross-Country evidence. IMF Working Paper WP/05/28, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
Islam, S., Islam, M., & Abubakar, H. (2012). Economic growth, employment and poverty reduction nexus: evidence from Bangladesh. Journal of International Economics, 3(1), 4-18.
Jalil, A., & Ma, Y. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: Time series evidence from Pakistan and China. Journal of economic cooperation, 29(2), 29-68.
Jarque, C. M., & Bera, A. K. (1980). Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Economics letters, 6(3), 255-259.
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:obuest:v:52:y:1990:i:2:p:169-210
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938278
Johansen, S., & Juselius, K. (1992). Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK. Journal of Econometrics, 53(1-3), 211-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90086-7
Kakwani, N. (1993). Poverty and economic growth with application to Cote D'Ivoire. Review of Income and Wealth, 39(2), 121-139. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4991.1993.tb00443.x
Kakwani, N. (2000). On measuring growth and inequality components of poverty with application to Thailand. Journal of quantitative economics, 16(1), 67-79.
Keeley, B. (2015). Income inequality: The gap between rich and poor. aris: OECD Insights, OECD Publishing.
Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082–1089. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3211829
Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2013). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, 33(4), 2483-2492.
Menegaki, A. N. (2019). The ARDL method in the energy growth nexus field: Best implementation strategy. Economies, 7(4), 105. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7040105
Narayan, P.K. (2004). Reformulating critical values for the Bounds F-statistics approach to cointegration: An application to the tourism demand model for Fiji. Department of Economics Discussion Papers No. 02/04, Monash University, Victoria, Australia.
Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence for cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
Nasir, A. B. M., & Mridha, H. A. (2017). Does income inequality dampen growth effect on poverty? Evidence from the U.S. county data. The Journal of Developing Areas, 51(4), 167-177. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26416969v
Ozturk, I., & Acaravci, A. (2013). The long-run and causal analysis of energy, growth, openness and financial development on carbon emission in Turkey. Energy Economics, 36, 262-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.025
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2678547
Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Pesaran, M.H., & Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive econometric analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Piketty, T. (2015). The Economics of Inequality. Cambridge: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
Ramsey, J. B. (1969). Tests for Specification Errors in Classical Linear Least-Squares Regression Analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 31(2), 350–371. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2984219
Sami, J. (2011). Multivariate Cointegration and Causality between Exports, Electricity Consumption and Real Income per Capita: Recent Evidence from Japan. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 1(3), 59–68. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/49
Son, H.H. (2007). Interrelationship between growth, inequality, and poverty: The Asian experience. ERD Working Paper Series No. 96, Asian Development Bank, Asian.
Stiglitz, J. E. (2013). The price of inequality: How today's divided society endangers our future. New York: W.W. Norton and Company.
Sumner A., Hoy, C., and Ortiz-Juarez, E. (2020). Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty. WIDER Working Paper No. 2020/43, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research, Helsinki.
Schwarz, G. (1978). Estimating the Dimension of a Model. The Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461–464. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2958889
Trejos, J. D. & Gindling, T. H. (2004). Inequality in Central America in the 1990s. CEPAL Review, 84, 175-196. https://www.cepal.org/en/publications/11054-inequality-central-america-1990s
United Nations. (2020). World economic situation and prospects, 2020. New York: United Nations.
UNCTAD. (2020). The least developed countries report, 2020: Productive capacities for the new decade. New York: United Nations Publications.
UN DESA. (2013). Inequality matters. New York: United Nations Publications.
UN DESA. (2020). World social report 2020: Inequality in a rapidly changing world. New York: United Nations Publications.
Valensisi, G. (2020). COVID-19 and global poverty: Are LDCs being left behind? The European journal of development research, 32(5), 1535-1557. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41287-020-00314-8
White, H. (1980). A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817–838. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934
Vanegas, M. (2022). Tourism, development economics, poverty alleviation and inequality. In R. Croes & Y. Yang (Eds.), A Modern Guide to Tourism Economics (pp. 237–258). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.
Vanegas, M., & Roe, T. (2021). Economic growth, inequality and poverty: Tourism dynamics in 3 CAFTA-DR countries. Paper presented at the 6th World Research Summit for Tourism and Hospitality, University of Central Florida, 14-15, December.
Vanegas, S. (2018). Tourism, macroeconomics, growth, and the St. Louis equation. Tourism Review International, 22(1), 3-21. https://doi.org/10.3727/154427218X15202734130413
Vanegas, M., Gartner, W., & Senauer, B. (2015). Tourism and poverty reduction: An economic sector analysis for Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Tourism Economics, 21(1), 159-182. http://dx.doi.org/10.5367/te.2014.0442
Vanegas, M. (2014). The triangle of poverty, economic growth, and inequality in Central America: does tourism matter? Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism Themes, 6(3), 277-292. https://doi.org/10.1108/WHATT-03-2014-0014
Vanegas, M. (2012). Poverty reduction through tourism economics. In M. M. Uysal, R. M. Perdue, & J. Sirgy (Eds.), Handbook of Tourism and Quality-of-Life Research: Enhancing the Lives of Tourists and Residents of Host Communities (pp. 65–83). New York: Springer.
Copyright (c) 2024 Manuel Vanegas, Terry Roe

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) (p-ISSN: 2541-1012; e-ISSN: 2528-2018) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
- The journal allows the author to hold the copyright of the article without restrictions.
- The journal allows the author(s) to retain publishing rights without restrictions
- The legal formal aspect of journal publication accessibility refers to Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY)