The Effect of Uncertainty on Inflation: Evidence in ASEAN
Downloads
This article examines the relationships between extreme poverty, economic growth, and inequality, assesses if changes in inequality dampen the impact of income on extreme poverty, and determines the magnitude of the inequality growth trade-off index in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Honduras. A country-specific ARDL bound regression was conducted. The findings indicate the presence of direct and indirect dampening impacts of changes in inequality on income growth and extreme poverty reduction. The magnitude of the inequality growth trade-off- index indicates whether to prioritize growth and/or inequality reducing policies. This means that the higher the inequality, as in Honduras, the higher the economic or average income growth rate required to compensate for the increase in inequality to achieve a given level of extreme poverty reduction. Accordingly, there is no one-size-fits-all policy approach to tackling extreme poverty.
Adarov, A. (2021). Dynamic interactions between financial cycles, business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances: A panel VAR analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 74, 434–451. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.03.021
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2022). The World Uncertainty Index (NBER Working Paper No. W29763). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4039482
Ananzeh, I. E. N. (2015). The Relationship between inflation and its uncertainty: Evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(4), 929-932. https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/1447
Angeletos, G.-M., Collard, F., & Dellas, H. (2018). Quantifying Confidence. Econometrica, 86(5). 1689-1726. https://doi.org/10.3982/ecta13079
Anglingkusumo, R., & Iyke, B. N. (2024). The interdependency of uncertainties in ASEAN +3 and G6 economies. The Singapore Economic Review. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590821410101
Anzuini, A., Rossi, L., & Tommasino, P. (2020). Fiscal policy uncertainty and the business cycle: Time series evidence from Italy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 65, 103238. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103238
Ascari, G., Fasani, S., Grazzini, J., & Rossi, L. (2023). Endogenous uncertainty and the macroeconomic impact of shocks to inflation expectations. Journal of Monetary Economics, 140, S48-S63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.04.002
ASEAN Secretariat. (2019). ASEAN Integration Report 2019. Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat. https://asean.org/wp-content/ uploads/2019/11/ASEAN-integration-report-2019.pdf
Ayeni, E., & Fanibuyan, O. (2022). The dynamics of uncertainty, macroeconomic variables, and capital market performance: A case study of Nigeria. Research in Globalization, 5, 100107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2022.100107
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4). 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
Ball, L. (1992). Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?. Journal of Monetary Economics, 29(3), 371-388. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(92)90032-W
Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., & Wright, I. J. (2018). Short and Long Run Uncertainty. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2807456
Bhat, S. A., & Laskar, M. R. (2016). Interest Rate, Inflation Rate and Gross Domestic Product of India. International Journal of Technical Research and Science, 1(9). 284-288. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3936829
Bloom, N. (2016). Fluctuations in uncertainty. Voprosy Ekonomiki, 2016(4). 30–55. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2016-4-30-55
Caldara, D., Conlisk, S., Iacoviello, M., & Penn, M. (2022). Do geopolitical risks raise or lower inflation. Federal Reserve Board of Governor.
Canh, N. P., Binh, N. T., Thanh, S. D., & Schinckus, C. (2020). Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty. International Economics, 161. 159-172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.11.012
Caporale, G. M., & Gil-Alana, L. A. (2023). Nominal and real wages in the UK, 1750–2015: mean reversion, persistence and structural breaks. SN Business & Economics, 3(8), 135.
Cascaldi-Garcia, D., Londono, J. M., & Wilson, B. A. (2023). The SNB-FRB-BIS High-Level Conference on Inflation Risk and Uncertainty. FEDS Notes, 2023-01–04. https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.3242
Celasun, O., Mihet, R., & Ratnovski, L. (2012). Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States (IMF Working Paper No. 2012/089). https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Commodity-Prices-and-Inflation-Expectations-in-the-United- States-25803
Chowdhury, K. B., & Sarkar, N. (2015). The Effect of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries: A Double Threshold GARCH Model. International Econometric Review, 7(1). 34-50. https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.278039
Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A., & Ruta, M. (2020). Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Global Value Chains: Some Facts, Many Questions. Review of Industrial Organization, 57(2). 285-308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11151-020-09772-0
Dany-Knedlik, G., & Garcia, J. A. (2018). Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies (Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1755). http://www.diw.de/discussionpapers
Ehigiamusoe, K. U., Guptan, V., & Narayanan, S. (2019). The effects of income and inflation on financial development: Evidence from heterogeneous panels (Economics Discussion Papers No. 2019-11).
Finck, D., & Tillmann, P. (2019). Price-setting Behavior and Inflation Dynamics in SEACEN Member Economies and Their Implications for Inflation. South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre. https://ideas.repec.org/b/sea/rstudy/rp104.html
Friedman, M. (1977). Nobel lecture: inflation and unemployment. Journal of political economy, 85(3), 451-472. https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/260579
Gilchrist, S., Schoenle, R., Sim, J., & Zakrajšek, E. (2017). Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis. American Economic Review, 107(3), 785-823. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150248
Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics (4th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
Ha, J., So, I., & Yao, Y. (2023). Global Inflation Uncertainty: Measures and Applications. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4407566
Haidari, Y., & Nolan, G. (2022). Sentiment, Uncertainty and Households' Inflation Expectations. Bulletin, September 2022, 40–50. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2022/sep/ sentiment-uncertainty-and-households-inflation-expectations.html
Haque, Q., & Magnusson, L. M. (2020). Uncertainty Shocks and Inflation Dynamics in the US (CAMA Working Paper No. 100/2020). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3731946
Hill, H., & Jayant, M. (2010). ASEAN Economic Integration: Features, Fulfillments, Failures and the Future (ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration No. 69). https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/28551/wp69-hill-menon-asean-economic-integration.pdf
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2023). Reprint of: Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 234. 56-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.03.002
International Monetary Fund. (2019). Lao People's Democratic Republic: 2019 Article IV Consultation – Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lao People's Democratic Republic. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2019/08/08/Lao-Peoples-Democratic-Republic-2019-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-48577
Istiak, K., & Alam, M. R. (2019). Oil prices, policy uncertainty and asymmetries in inflation expectations. Journal of Economic Studies, 46(2). 324-334. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-02-2018-0074
Jones, P. M., & Olson, E. (2013). The time-varying correlation between uncertainty, output, and inflation: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH model. Economics Letters, 118(1). 33-37. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.09.012
Karahan, Ö. (2012). The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Turkish Economy. Procedia Economics and Finance, 219-228. https:// doi: 10.1016/S2212-5671(12)00026-3.
Leduc, S., & Liu, Z. (2016). Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 82. 20-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.07.002
Li, S., & Luedtke, A. (2023). Efficient estimation under data fusion. Biometrika, 110(4), 1041-1054. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asad007
Li, X., & Liu, X. (2005). Foreign Direct Investment and economic growth: An increasingly endogenous relationship. World Development, 33(3). 393-407. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2004.11.001
Liow, K. H. (2015). Conditional volatility spillover effects across emerging financial markets. Asia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies, 44(2 Special Issue). 215-245. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajfs.12087
Meinen, P., & Roehe, O. (2018). To sign or not to sign? On the response of prices to financial and uncertainty shocks. Economics Letters, 171. 189-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.07.045
Nazlioglu, S., Erdem, C., & Soytas, U. (2013). Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets. Energy Economics, 36. 658-665. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.11.009
OECD. (2016). Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2016: Enhancing Regional Ties: Brunei Darussalam (pp. 325–334). https://doi.org/10.1787/saeo-2016-16-en
Oxford Business Group. (2017). Brunei Darussalam Year in Review 2016. https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/articles-interviews/brunei-darussalam-year-in-review-2016
Ping, H. U. A. (2011). The economic and social effects of real exchange rate─ Evidence from the Chinese provinces. In International Conference on Social Cohesion and Development. https://www.oecd.org/dev/pgd/46838088.pdf
Romer, D. (2012). Advanced Macroeconomics (4th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Salim, N. J., Leng, N. K., Yusof, M. H. M., Yahya, H., & Mamat, M. (2021). Determinants of Inflation in Selected Asian Countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 11(11). 2318-2326. https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarbss/v11-i11/11278
Sanida, N., & Rahayu, N. P. W. (2022). Pengaruh Inflasi di Negara-negara Asean (Indonesia, Singapura, Laos, Myanmar, dan Kamboja) [The Effect of Inflation in Asean Countries (Indonesia, Singapore, Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia)]. Ekombis Sains: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan Dan Bisnis, 7(2). 139-150. https://doi.org/10.24967/ekombis.v7i2.1791
Schinckus, C. (2009). Economic uncertainty and econophysics. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 388(20). 4415-4423. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2009.07.008
Tang, Q., & Li, M. (2021). Analysis of myanmar's macroeconomic development. E3S Web of Conferences, 235. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202123501022
The World Bank. (2018). Investing in opportunity, ending poverty. Annual Report 2018. https://doi.org/10.1109/ITCS.2009.35
Trabelsi, E., & Ben Khaled, A. (2023). Monetary policy and inflation targeting under global uncertainty: a SVAR approach for Tunisia. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 15(4/5), 368-395. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-02-2023-0035
Trung, N. B. (2019). The spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on the global economy: A global VAR approach. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 48. 90-110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2019.01.017
University of Minnesota. (2016). Principles of Economics. Publisher: University of Minnesota Libraries Publishing. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24926/8668.1601
Verico, K. (2022). The ASEAN Economic Integration Principles (071). https://www.lpem.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/WP-LPEM-071_The_ASEAN_Economic_Integration_Principles.pdf
HV, V., Thompson, F., & Tonby, O. (2014). Understanding ASEAN: Seven things you need to know. McKinsey & Company.
Viorica, D., Jemna, D., Pintilescu, C., & Asandului, M. (2014). The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty. Empirical evidence for the newest EU countries. PLoS ONE, 9(3). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091164
Wang, Y. (2023). Impact of China's Economic Policy Uncertainty on Inflation Rate. SHS Web of Conferences, 163, 01031. https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202316301031
Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory Econometrics A Modern Approach (5th ed.). Cengage Learning, South-Western.
Copyright (c) 2024 Andi Tiara Putri Marasanti, Kiki Verico
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
JDE (Journal of Developing Economies) (p-ISSN: 2541-1012; e-ISSN: 2528-2018) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
- The journal allows the author to hold the copyright of the article without restrictions.
- The journal allows the author(s) to retain publishing rights without restrictions
- The legal formal aspect of journal publication accessibility refers to Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY)