How the Consumer Confidence Index Affect the Credit Growth in Indonesia?
Downloads
Credit has a positive role in encouraging economic growth in Indonesia. A factor that can influence the level of credit distribution is consumer confidence in economic conditions. Therefore, this research aims to examine the influence of the consumer confidence index and several other factors, such as inflation, third-party funds, and credit interest rates on commercial bank credit distribution in Indonesia. By using time series data for the period 2008:1-2019:12 and the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method, this research shows that the level of consumer confidence in Indonesia’s economic conditions has a positive effect on credit distribution. The higher inflation encourages customers to apply for more credit. Apart from that, the high and low levels of credit disbursement were also positively influenced by the amount of third-party funds but were not affected by high or low credit interest rates. Thus, keeping consumer confidence high and inflation under control even though it is increasing, and raising the number of third-party funds is essential so that the economy continues to grow through the transmission of credit lines.
Adeleye, N., Osabuohien, E., Bowale, E., Matthew, O., & Oduntan, E. (2018). Financial reforms and credit growth in Nigeria: empirical insights from ARDL and ECM techniques. International Review of Applied Economics, 32(6), 807–820. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1375466
Adzis, A. A., Sheng, L. E., & Bakar, J. A. (2018). Bank Lending Determinants: Evidence from Malaysia Commercial Banks. Journal of Banking and Finance Management, 1(3), 36–48. https://doi.org/10.22259/2642-9144.0103005
Afdhal, M., Syahnur, S., & Nasir, M. (2014). Konsumsi di Provinsi Aceh. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 2(3), 11–20.
Amelia, N., Aimon, H., & Syofyan, E. (2015). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Penawaran Dan Permintaan Kredit Modal Kerja Pada Bank Umum Di Sumatera Barat. Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi, 4(7), 103832.
Anderson, H. P., Ruiz-Ortega, C., & Tressel, T. (2017). Determinants of long- versus short-term bank credit in EU countries. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 22(4), 274–295. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1583
Assefa, M. (2014). Determinants of Growth in Bank Credit to the Private Sector in Ethiopia : A Supply Side Approach. Journal of Finance and Accounting, 5(17), 90–103.
Awdeh, A. (2016). The Determinants of Credit Growth in Lebanon. International Business Research, 10(2), 9. https://doi.org/10.5539/ibr.v10n2p9
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2024). Tingkat Inflasi Harga Konsumen Nasional Tahunan. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/1/OTE1IzE=/annually-national-consumer-price-inflation-rate--y-on-y--sup1-sup--2022-100-.html
Bank Indonesia. (2008). Statistik Perbankan Indonesia Desember 2008. In Indonesian Bank Statistics (Vol. 6, Issue 1).
Bank Indonesia. (2012). Meta Data SPI Penyempurnaan 2012.
Bank Indonesia. (2019). Survei Konsumen Desember 2018: Optimisme Konsumen Terus Menguat. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/Survei-Konsumen-Desember-2018-Optimisme-Konsumen-Terus-Menguat.aspx
Bank Indonesia. (2020). Survei Konsumen Desember 2019: Optimisme Konsumen Menguat. https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/Survei-Konsumen-Desember-2019-Optimisme-Konsumen-Menguat.aspx
Bank Indonesia. (2022). Laporan Survei Konsumen Januari 2022. Bank Indonesia, 9(Grafik 1), 1–14.
Baoko, G., Acheampong, I. A., & Ibrahim, M. (2017). Determinants of bank credit in Ghana : a bounds-testing cointegration approach. African Review of Economics and Finance, 9(1), 33–61.
Černohorský, J. (2017). Druhy bankovních úvěrů a jejich vliv na vývoj ekonomiky: Případová studie České republiky. E a M: Ekonomie a Management, 20(4), 34–48. https://doi.org/10.15240/tul/001/2017-4-003
Demirel, S. K., & Artan, S. (2017). The Causality Relationships between Economic Confidence and Fundamental Macroeconomic Indicators: Empirical Evidence from Selected European Union Countries. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(5), 417–424.
Dewi, K. P., & Purwono, R. (2020). Analysis of the Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Non-Performing Credit Risk in Emerging Market Asia 2010-2018. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan), 5(2), 121–136. https://doi.org/10.20473/jiet.v5i2.23616
Dhungana, N. T., & Pradhan, R. S. (2018). Effect of Bank Lending on Inflation in Nepal. Journal of Advanced Academic Research, 4(2), 27–43. https://doi.org/10.3126/jaar.v4i2.19533
Duican (Moisescu), E. R., & Pop, A. (2015). The Implications of Credit Activity on Economic Growth in Romania. Procedia Economics and Finance, 30(15), 195–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(15)01286-1
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics.
Guo, K., & Stepanyan, V. (2011). Determinants of Bank Credit in Emerging Market Economies. IMF Working Papers, 11(51), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781455218035.001
Hermuningsih, S., Sari, P. P., & Rahmawati, A. D. (2020). the Influence of Third-Party Funds, Non-Performing Loans (Npl) on Credit Distribution With Profitability As Intervening Variable in Commercial Banks. International Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting Research (IJEBAR), 4(02), 40–50. https://doi.org/10.29040/ijebar.v4i02.988
Imran, K., & Nishat, M. (2013). Determinants of bank credit in Pakistan: A supply side approach. Economic Modelling, 35, 384–390. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.07.022
Ivanovic, M. (2016). Determinants of credit growth: The case of Montenegro. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 5(2), 101–118. https://doi.org/10.1515/jcbtp-2016-0013
Jufrizen, J., Gunawan, A., Radiman, R., & Sari, M. (2019). Analisis Penyaluran Kredit Kepada Masyarakat Dalam Meningkatkan Perolehan Pendapatan (Studi Pada PT.Bank Perkreditan Rakyat Duta Adiarta Medan). Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Dan Studi Pembangunan, 19(1), 67–75. https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v19i1.2891
Kapusuzoglu, A., Ceylan, N. B., & Memis, A. G. . (2019). The Relationship Between Consumer Credit and Consumer Confidence Index. Eurasian Journal of Researches in Social and Economics, 1–8.
Kłopocka, A. M. (2017). Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland. Social Indicators Research, 133(2), 693–717. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1376-4
Korkmaz, S. (2015). Impact of Bank Credits on Economic Growth and Inflation. Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, 5(1), 1792–6599.
Lucas, R. E. (1972). Expectations and the neutrality of money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(72)90142-1
Maesaroh, S., & Sucianti, A. (2019). Tingkat Suku Bunga, Brand Image dan Kepercayaan Terhadap Penyaluran Kredit di PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Cabang Mandiraja Kabupaten Banjarnegara. Medikonis STIE Tamansiwa Banjarnegara, 19(29), 57–72.
Malede, M. (2014). Determinants of Commercial Banks Lending Behavior: Evidence From Turkey. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 6(20), 933–943.
Mankiw, N. G. (2012). Ten principles of economics. Melbourne: Cengage Learning.
Mankiw, N. G. (2019). Macroeconomics (10th ed.). Macmillan Higher Education. Mishkin, F. S. (2019). The Economics of Money, Banking, and The Pearson Series in Economics. Pearson Education Limited.
Murdiyanto, A. (2022). Faktor-Faktor Yang Berpengaruh Dalam Penentuan Penyaluran Kredit Perbankan Studi Pada Bank Umum Di Indonesia Periode Tahun 2006-2011. Conference In Business, Accounting, And …, 1(1), 61–74. http://jurnal.unissula.ac.id/index.php/cbam/article/view/123%0Ahttp://jurnal.unissula.ac.id/index.php/cbam/article/download/123/99
Murti, I., & Santika, I. (2016). Pengaruh Kepercayaan Nasabah, Bauran Produk Dan Bauran Lokasi Terhadap Transaksi Nasabah. E-Jurnal Manajemen Universitas Udayana, 5(1), 253805.
Muth, J. F. (1961). Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica, 29(3), 315–335. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909635
Muzayyinulhaq. (2019). Analisis Permintaan dan Penawaran Kredit Perbankan di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB.
Olokoyo, F. O. (2011). Determinants of Commercial Banks’ Lending Behavior in Nigeria. International Journal of Financial Research, 2(2), 61–72. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v2n2p61
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2020). Statistik Perbankan Indonesia. https://www.ojk.go.id/id/kanal/perbankan/data-dan-statistik/statistik-perbankan-indonesia/Default.aspx
Sargent, T. J. (1987). Macroeconomic theory (2nd ed.). Academic Press.
Snowdon, B., & Vane, H. R. (2005). Modern macroeconomics: Its origins, development and current state. Edward Elgar Publishing.
Swamy, V. (2012). Does Government Intervention in Credit Deployment Cause Inclusive Growth? An Evidence from Indian Banking. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2126807
Thaker, H. M. T., Ee, T. S., Sin, C. F., & Man, W. H. (2014). The Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Credit in Malaysia. An Analysis Via The Error Correction Model (ECM). Skyline Business Journal, IX(1), 1–8.
Utari, G. A. D., Arimurti, T., & Kurniati, I. N. (2012). Optimal Credit Growth. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 15(2), 1–34.
Vogelsang, T. J. (2012). Heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, and spatial correlation robust inference in linear panel models with fixed-effects. Journal of Econometrics, 166(2), 303–319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.10.001
Wahab, A. (2015). Pengaruh PDRB, Inflasi, Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia dan Dana Pihak Ketiga Terhadap Penyaluran Kredit Pada Bank-Bank Umum Di Sulawesi Selatan. EcceS: Economics Social and Development Studies, 2(1), 1–25.
Warjiyono, P. (2004). Mekanisme Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter Di Indonesia. Kebanksenralan, 11.
Wijaya, H. P. (2019). Determinan Pertumbuhan Kredit Modal Kerja Perbankan di Indonesia. Universitas Airlangga.
Copyright (c) 2025 Pevi Fitria Kartika Alif, Shochrul Rohmatul Ajija, Zidna Fitriyana, Wahyu Setyorini
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
JIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan) (p-ISSN: 2541-1470; e-ISSN: 2528-1879) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License
Authors who publish with JIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan) agree to the following terms:
- The journal allows the author to hold the copyright of the article without restrictions.
- The journal allows the author(s) to retain publishing rights without restrictions
- The legal formal aspect of journal publication accessibility refers to Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY-SA).
