Asymmetric Spillover Effect of The United States and China Islamic Index on ASEAN Islamic Index during The Covid-19 Pandemic

ABSTRAK

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji spillover effect indeks saham syariah Amerika Serikat dan Cina terhadap indeks saham syariah ASEAN dengan menggunakan metode Nonlinier Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) untuk menemukan spillover effect yang bersifat asimetris selama pandemi Covid-19. Data yang diamati dimulai pada 1 Januari 2020 sampai dengan 30 September 2021 dengan total observasi sebanyak 336 data untuk masing-masing indeks saham. Penelitian ini mendapatkan beberapa temuan. Pertama, indeks saham syariah Amerika Serikat dan Cina memiliki pengaruh asimetris jangka pendek terhadap indeks saham syariah Indonesia, Malaysia dan Thailand selama pandemi Covid-19. Kedua, indeks saham syariah Amerika Serikat dan Cina hanya memiliki pengaruh asimetris jangka panjang terhadap indeks saham syariah Malaysia selama pandemi Covid-19. Ketiga, efek ketika terjadi penurunan indeks saham syariah Amerika Serikat dan Cina lebih besar dibandingkan pada saat terjadi kenaikan terhadap indeks saham syariah Malaysia selama pandemi Covid-19. Salah satu penyebab hubungan tersebut adalah karena adanya hubungan dagang yang sangat erat antara Amerika Serikat dan Cina terhadap Malaysia. Adapun implikasi dari penelitian ini adalah investor internasional dapat menjadikan hasil penelitian ini sebagai bahan pengambilan keputusan apabila terjadi kontraksi akibat krisis seperti pada saat pandemi Covid-19 terhadap indeks saham syariah Amerika Serikat dan Cina untuk mempertahankan maupun menjual portofolio investasi mereka.

Kata Kunci: Spillover, Indeks Syariah, Asimetris, Covid-19.

ABSTRACT

This study aims to examine the spillover effect of Islamic stock indexes of the United States and China on the ASEAN Islamic stock index using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) method to find asymmetric spillover effects during the Covid-19 pandemic. The observed data starts on January 1, 2020, until September 30, 2021, with a total of 336 observations for each stock index. This study found some findings. First, the Islamic stock indexes of the United States and China have a short-term asymmetric influence on the Islamic stock indices of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand during the Covid-19 pandemic. Second, the Islamic stock indexes of the United States and China have only a long-term asymmetric influence on Malaysia's sharia stock indexes during the Covid-19 pandemic. Third, the effect when there is a decline in Islamic stock indexes of the United States and China is greater than when there is an increase in the Malaysian sharia stock index during the Covid-19 pandemic. One of the reasons for this relationship is the very close trade relationship between the United States and China with Malaysia. The research implication of this study is that international investors can use the results of this research as a decision-making material in the event of a contraction due to the crisis (one of which is the Covid-19 pandemic) in the United States and China Islamic stock indexes to maintain or sell their investment portfolios.

Keywords: Spillover, Islamic Index, Asymmetric, Covid-19.

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