APLIKASI METODE AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) PADA PERAMALAN STABILITAS BANK SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

Rosyidah Rosyidah, Raditya Sukmana

= http://dx.doi.org/10.20473/vol5iss20183pp200-215
Abstract views = 217 times | views = 231 times

Abstract


The international financial crisis in has increased the world's interest in Islamic banking. Forecasting the stability of Islamic Banks is important to prevent cost crisis in the future. Z-score can explain the possible bankruptcy of a bank that measures the number of standard deviations a return realization has to fall in order to deplete equity. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) has the advantage of accuracy and precision in forecasting. Analysis result showed that ARIMA (24,1,5) is the best model for forecastng the z-score of the Islamic bank with the following equation: ̇ ̇ ̇
The model was used to predict predicts the z-score from September 2016 to December 2017. The result showed that z-score of Islamic banks have a downward trend until January 2017 and upward trend from June until November 2017 and then drop in December 2017. The main factor is the changes of retained earnings at each period.

Full Text:

PDF

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2019 Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 

 

 Creative Commons License

 JESTT by Universitas Airlangga is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

 

JESTT