Probabilities and seat gains of minor parties in the 2019 municipal legislative election in Surabaya City, Indonesia
Downloads
This study examines the relationship between seat acquisition probabilities and the acquisition of minor party seats in the 2019 Surabaya City DPRD election. This research is crucial because theoretically the proportional representation electoral system quota/allocation of electoral district seats (dapil) has the probability to be accessed by all parties participating in the election, but in fact in the 2019 Surabaya City DPRD election the quota/allocation of seats was dominated by large parties. This research method is library research with the analysis technique using the Pearson Product Moment statistical test. According to the research results, first, the relationship between seat acquisition probability and minor party seat acquisition is negative and insignificant. The results of the research hypothesis test show rcount (-0.753) < rtable (0.997). Second, the relationship between these two variables controlled by the threshold variable is significantly positive. The research hypothesis test result is rcount (0.000) > rtable (0.997). Based on this research: (1) the electoral system of proportional representation quota/allocation of electoral district seats is not accessible to all minor parties participating in the election; (2) the size of electoral districts with seat quotas in the medium-large criteria does not have a significant positive effect on the acquisition of seats of parties participating in the election; (3) the threshold simultaneously affects the significant positive relationship between the size of the medium-large quota electoral districts and the acquisition of seats of parties participating in the election; and (4) the acquisition of party votes below the lower threshold still has the probability to get the remaining seats.
Agustyati K & Wulandari L (2013) Menetapkan Arena Perebutan Kursi DPRD: Penerapan Prinsip-Prinsip Pemilu Demokratis dalam Pembentukan Daerah Pemilihan DPRD Provinsi dan DPRD Kabupaten/Kota Pemilu 2004. In: Supriyanto D (ed). Jakarta: Yayasan Perludem.
Aliff SM (2016) Proportional representation and its impacts multi ethnic society of Sri Lanka.Internatinal Research Journal of Management, IT & Society Sciences 3 (5):103-115. https://slop.org/journals/index.php/irjmis/article/view/372.
Aidoo R & Chamberlain A (2015) The role of minor parties in political competition: Lessons from ghana’s 2012 elections. Journal of Asian and African Studies 50 (2):196-207. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909613516730.
Baskaran T & Lopes da Fonseca M (2013) Electoral thresholds and the success of minor parties. Ssrn 177. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2366735.
Carlson E (2021) In defense of a divided opposition: Programmatic distribution and ethnic minor party support. Political Science Research and Methods 9 (4):745-759. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2020.36.
Dawson C (2007) A Practical Guide to Research Methods: A User-Friendly Manual for Mastering Research Techniquies and Projects (third edit). Oxford: How To Books.
Devine CJ & Kopko KC (2021) Did gary johnson and jill stein cost hillary clinton the presidency? a counterfactual analysis of minor party voting in the 2016 US presidential election. Forum (Germany) 19 (2):173–201. https://doi.org/10.1515/for-2021-0011.
di Cortona PG, Manzi C, Pennisi A, Ricca F, & Simeone B (1999) Evaluation and Optimization of Electoral Systems. Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.
Duverger M (1959) Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in The Modern State. In: Routledge Handbook of African Politics. North Yorkshire: Methuen & Co. LTD. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203070680.
Gallagher M & Mitchell P (ed) (2005) The politic of electoral systems. In: The Politics of Electoral Systems. New York: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0199257566.003.0023.
Gallagher M & Mitchell P (2018) Dimensions of variation in electoral systems. In: Herron ES, Pekkanen RJ, & Shugart MS (ed). The Oxford Handbook of Electoral System. New York: Oxford University Press. 23-40. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190258658.013.15.
Held A (2023) Compulsory voting, turnout, and support for left-wing parties: The case of Australia. Electoral Studies 81: 102569. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ELECTSTUD.2022.102569.
Katz RS (2007) A Theory of Parties and Electoral Systems. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
KPU (2017) Peraturan KPU RI Nomor 16 Tahun 2017 tentang Penataan Daerah Pemilihan dan Alokasi Kursi Anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Kabupaten/Kota dalam Pemilihan Umum (Berita Negara Republik Indonesia Tahun 2017 Nomor 1870).
KPU (2018) Keputusan KPU RI Nomor 18/PP.02-Kpt/03/KPU/I/2018 tentang Petunjuk Teknis Penataan Daerah Pemilihan dan Alokasi Kursi Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Kabupaten/Kota dalam Pemilihan Umum.
KPU (2019a) Keputusan KPU Kota Surabaya Nomor: 188/PL.02.6-Kpt/Kota/V/2019 tentang Penetapan Rekapitulasi Hasil Penghitungan Perolehan Suara Peserta Pemilihan Umum Anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Kota Surabaya Tahun 2019.
KPU (2019b) Keputusan KPU Kota Surabaya Nomor: 317/PL.01.9-Kpt/3578/KPU-Kot/VIII/2019 tentang Penetapan Perolehan Kursi Partai Politik Peserta Pemilihan Umum Anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Kota Surabaya Tahun 2019.
KPU (2019c) Keputusan KPU Kota Surabaya Nomor: 318/PL.01.9-Kpt/3578/KPU-Kot/VIII/2019 tentang Penetapan Calon Terpilih Anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Kota Surabaya dalam Pemilihan Umum Tahun 2019.
KPU (2019d) Keputusan KPU RI Nomor 13/PL.01.3-Kpt/03/KPU/I/2018 tentang Jumlah Penduduk Kabupaten/Kota dan Jumlah Kursi Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Kabupaten/Kota dalam Pemilihan Umum Tahun 2019 sebagaimana dirubah beberapa kali dan terakhir dengan Keputusan KPU 256/PL.01.3-Kpt/03/KPU/IV/2018 tentang Jumlah Penduduk Kabupaten/Kota dan Jumlah Kursi Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Kabupaten/Kota dalam Pemilihan Umum.
KPU (2019e) Keputusan KPU RI Nomor: 58/PL.01.1-Kpt/03/KPU/II/2018 tentang Penetapan Partai Politik Peserta Pemilihan Umum Anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Provinsi dan Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Kabupaten/Kota Tahun 2019.
KPU (2019f) Keputusan KPU RI Nomor: 278/PL.01.3-Kpt/06/KPU/IV/2018 tentang Penetapan Daerah Pemilihan Anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Provinsi dan Anggota Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat Daerah Kabupaten/Kota di Wilayah Provinsi Jawa Timur dalam Pemilihan Umum Tahun 2019.
Lachance S (2023) Policy signals and strategic voting for minor parties: Evidence from Germany. Electoral Studies 81: 102577. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ELECTSTUD.2022.102577.
Lijphart A (1994) Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-Seven Democracies, 1945-1990. New York: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.32-1188.
Lijphart A (2003) Modelos de Democracia Desempenho e Padroes de Governo em 36 Paises. Rio de Janeiro: Civilizacao Brasileira.
Negri M (2018) Preferential votes and minority representation in open list proportional representation systems. Social Choice and Welfare 50 (2):281-303. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00355-017-1084-2.
Mngomezulu BR (2019) Assessing the suitability of the proportional representation electoral system for Southern. Journal of African Foreign Affairs 6 (2):157-171. https://doi.org/10.31920/2056-5658/2019/v6n2a8.
Pileček R (2024) Tactical voting in Czechia: Forms and determinants under proportional representation. June. https://doi.org/10.26412/psr226.03.
Reynolds A, Reilly B, & Ellis A (2005) Electoral system design: The new international IDEA handbook. In: Reynolds A, Reilly B, & Ellis A (ed). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
Sartori G (2001) The Party Effects of Electoral Systems. In Diamond L & Plattner MF (ed). Political Parties and Democracy. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 90-105.
Shugart, Matthew S, & Taagepera R (2018) Electoral System Effects on Party Systems. In: The Oxford Handbook of Electoral Systems. New York: Oxford University Press. 41-68. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190258658.013.49.
Supriyanto D & Mellaz A (2011) Ambang Batas Perwakilan: Pengaruh Parliamentary Thresholdterhadap Penyederhanaan Sistem Kepartaian dan Proporsionalitas Hasil Pemilu. Jakarta: Perludem.
Yin RK (2003) Case Study Research Design and Methods. Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications. https://doi.org/10.1300/J145v03n03_07.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright of this journal is possession of Editorial Board and Journal Manager, by the knowledge of the author, while the moral right of the publication belongs to the author.
The formal legal aspect of journal publication accessibility refers to Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike (CC BY-NC-SA), implies that publication can be used for non-commercial purposes in its original form (cannot be modified).
Every publication (printed/electronic) are open access for educational purposes, research, and library. Other than the aims mentioned above, the editorial board is not responsible for copyright violation.
