FORECASTING JUMLAH KASUS BARU COVID-19 DI KOTA MALANG: Kajian Dengan Analisis Time Series Metode Exponential Smooting

COVID-19 Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Malang City Time Series Analysis

Authors

30 June 2024
Photo by Martin Sanchez on Unsplash

COVID-19 is a disease caused by the corona virus and causes the main symptoms in the form of respiratory problems. Indonesia announced the presence of COVID-19 cases since March 2020. Forecasting COVID-19 cases is important to determine the right strategy for dealing with wider transmission of COVID-19. Time series analysis is a statistical analysis that can make very accurate forecasts, by considering previous data patterns. The Exponential Smoothing Method is one of the methods developed in time series analysis. The aim of this research is to forecast COVID-19 cases in Malang City. This research was conducted at the Malang City Health Service by taking secondary data, namely monthly data on the number of COVID-19 cases from March 2020 to August 2022. Based on the research results, it shows that the number of new cases obtained in September - December 2022 was 856. Single Exponential Smoothing Mode; generated in a mathematical model is Lt = (0,0177)Yt + (0,9823)Lt-1.